Frag Out! Magazine
Issue link: https://fragout.uberflip.com/i/1308154
years - over that period the physical geography of the given area would remain unchanged. But the meaning and context of those factors can change rapidly. This does not mean that geography (terrain) or climate remains irrelevant, for the analysis of the actual or potential conflicts. The Americans have learned that the hard way in Iran - during the Eagle Claw operation. Putting it simply, the geographical factor needs to be treated as one of the numerous components. Its relevance is highlighted by the primary matter - the strategic objectives of the sides of the conflict. The hypothetical war that we are discussing sees the US, Israel, or the coalition being driven to make it impossible for Iran to manufacture nuclear weapons, or to neutralize these assets, should Tehran own the nuclear warheads. Considering the political factors, the most plausible scenario would involve an offensive operation by a coalition led by the US, along with allied Arab nations, discretely and covertly supported by Israel in the intelligence dimension. A one-sided Israeli or US operation is a less probable scenario. This condition would limit the scope of required operations. There is no need to take over most, or even the whole territory of the attacked state. It may also not be required to install a new government, as it happened in Iraq back in 2003 for instance. It is an error then, to view the use of military force as an act of total war aimed at the total destruction of the enemy/ nation-state. There are some cases as such known. Most frequently they resulted from the fact that no other means were available to end the war, or fanaticism of one of the sides. This is where the center of gravity comes into play - the source of the power that the enemy may yield. Not always is this a tangible resource - the power may come from ideology, or even be an expression of some kind of internal resources. Usually, several elements constitute the building blocks of the center of gravity. Here, looking at one's mobile phone may be a helpful tool in understanding the concept. This device uses the battery power, software (operating system), and the ability to connect to the GSM network. And the above elements could be listed as key resources. Applications or functions that do not play a key role have a lower significance here. A smartphone with damaged headphone input or with the music app inoperable would still be able to serve its basic purpose. Analogously, nuclear facilities at which R&D is done to develop nuclear weapons and the means to carry those weapons (bases and manufacturing facilities) would both become a priority target during a hypothetical conflict with Iran. In the case of the latter targets, ballistic missiles are especially important, with their relatively long-range and ability to rapidly carry out a nuclear strike. Therefore, it is recommended to scrutinize the threat comprehensively - in this case, missile and nuclear programs should be both taken into consideration. ANALYSIS