Frag Out! Magazine
Issue link: https://fragout.uberflip.com/i/1333129
It is estimated that the design phase may cost 50 to 80 bn euro. Meanwhile, the total cost of the R&D effort and the further acquisition of the NGF jets and the FCAS/NGWS ecosystem would exceed EUR 100 billion. The primary doubts related to this program are tied to the finances, and to the related matter - the actual procurement requirement as divided between the program participants. A relatively low number of aircraft acquired may drive the unit price much higher, contrary to the competition - such as the new variants of the F-35 that be- nefit from the large scale of production. For that reason, the FCAS program partners jointly declare that starting from 2026 when another stage of the program would begin, more part- ner nations could potentially join the initiative. Tempest Tempest is the second European new-genera- tion combat aircraft program. It involves the UK (leading the initiative), Sweden, and Italy. Officially, the program has been launched in 2018 when the UK Secretary of Defense, Gavin Williamson, announced the launch of the Tempest program bureau during the Farnborough Air Show. The bureau would coordinate the work of entities such as BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce, MBDA, and Leonardo. During the first phase of the program that is to come to completion by 2025, the work un- dertaken by the aforesaid entities would focus on developing the preliminary configuration of the new jet, and the new technologies that would be put into use later on (avionics- and engine-related). According to British estima- tes, phase I of the Tempest program would cost 2.5 billion euros for the British taxpayer. It is not clear though, as to what financial input would be declared by the remaining two of the program participants. The opinion makers say that the program, in its current shape, with just two major partners, is not economically viable. This is caused by the low quantitative demand for the fighters, and there is a smaller chance than in the case of the FCAS/NGWS project, that more European partners would join the Tempest project. In circumstances as such, finding a western partner that co- uld improve the order portfolio significantly, would radically change the prospects for the Tempest program. The UK, with the recent Brexit process, openly claims that looking for potential Tempest program partners, it would not limit itself to Europe alone. Japan, India, Turkey, or Saudi Arabia are listed as poten- tial participants. Japan, with its steps taken towards deepening the political, military, and economic cooperation with the UK, seems to be a perfect candidate to work on this project. It can make industrial contributions with its innovative technologies (in the domain of ra- dars, for instance), as well as financial ones, with a major order portfolio. Japan would be forced to procure a new MRCA to replace several hundred of 4th generation fighter air- craft. Regardless of who is going to be teamed up within the consortia, the most viable solution here, economically and militarily, would be to fuse both programs. Right from the very start, it would be possible to secure a much broader order portfolio. The scenario in which the programs are being pursued separately would make the designs compete on the European market, but also in the export arena. However, as the experts note, Europe has had some experience in pursuing similar, yet competing, and separate defense programs so far. The fact that Eurofighter, Gripen, and Rafale platforms were developed almost at once is a testimony to that. These designs do compete in the export marketpla- ce now. They often are losing in the tendering procedures, due to the unit price exceeding the one associated with competing designs manufactured in higher quantities - this refers to the US-made MRCA. www.fragoutmag.com