Frag Out! Magazine
Issue link: https://fragout.uberflip.com/i/1407740
western-backed military forces. The other would be na- tion building but on steroids. Simply funneling more re- sources – troops, equipment, money, training – not only for military but civilian institutions, since beginning, could have some visible effects, and maybe the government in Kabul would withstand a hypothetical Taliban offensive after withdrawal of Western forces. But nowadays, those scenarios must be left to the "alternate history" domain. Coming back to reality, we have now Taliban ruling again in Kabul and there is a good chance that they will quickly consolidate their power, probably killing or putting in pris- on large numbers of citizens. The pictures of the airlift remain a symbol of American political and military failure, and there shall be long discussions about who and how was responsible for this. Will it really undermine Amer- ican power? In a world where the phrase "Great Power Competition" dominates the narrative of foreign and se- curity policy, Afghanistan was not strategically important, neither for America, nor for China or Russia. There are no resources worth deploying troops there, it is not a strate- gic location, especially in the times of cruise missiles and cyberwars. Of course those countries shall monitor the situation, but mostly as a preventive measure. Role of Afghanistan as a terrorist sanctuary was over in 2002. If in the future there will again be such a threat, the USA will not engage in another long war. Just like it already happened in Yemen, Syria or Africa – future coun- terterrorist operations shall be low-footprint, swift oper- ations with use of air power and SOF in order to achieve only limited kinetic effects, like killing or capturing some terrorist leader, destroying training camp or rescuing hos- tages. Those shall not be also the most important opera- tions from Washington point of view. In the foreseeable future, the most important shall be using conventional forces to shape the security environ- ment, deter enemy actions, and in case of conflict, seize initiative and dominate battlespace. And this battlespace shall be seas and islands in Western Pacific and Eastern Europe. The major overhauls of USmilitary – especially in the case of the Marine Corps are already underway. At the same time there is and there shall be an entire generation of American leaders and soldiers bound by Af- ghanistan experience, just like there was a generation of leaders who shared experience of the Vietnam War. They shall be determined not to let long and effectively lost war to happen again. They may develop preferences for other forms of warfare. The ones that allow for precision strike at the enemy centers of gravity, the most vulnerable ele- ments, reducing risk of own losses. 9 www.fragoutmag.com ANALYSIS