Frag Out! Magazine
Issue link: https://fragout.uberflip.com/i/1467328
and militarily - a player whose potential shall be respected, and hence it would be better to engage in trade relations than to escalate tensions. One needs to take into account the fact that even though the Russian elites find the power stance as natural, deeply rooted in the Russian strategic culture, the Western view may be different - as has been clearly shown by the German post-WW2 strategic culture. Simplifying the above: the Russian elites can easily accept the war, even if it entails significant casualties. For the West, meanwhile, after both World Wars, and the Cold War, any war is a last resort. The preferred option is to pursue diplomacy or to diminish the risk of a potential conflict by establishing a mutually beneficial trade relationship. Hence, for decades, ever since the dissolution of the USSR, attempts were being made at making Russia a part of the global security system. It was hoped that the country would be a normal, large state, with its economy being gradually modernized, finding its spot in the global system. For that reason, before the war, any discussion on potential sanctions, involving cutting the connection between Russia and the SWIFT payment system, was considered a "nuclear" option. One shall also be aware that the deployment of military forces between 2021 and 2022 gave an obvious heads up. Nonetheless, it was uncertain as to what the Russian intentions were. It was however known, what kind of global circumstances surrounded the unfolding events. The world has been battling another wave of the SARS- CoV-2 pandemic and its ramifications. In the US, the new administration was trying hard to tackle the internal challenges, economic and political. The withdrawal from Afghanistan turned into a dramatic and desperate rescue operation. Germany experienced a change of authorities - all of the above contextual factors made it a perfect moment for the Russians. It was not clear what the Russian intentions were though. The target, however, was easy to designate. It was known that after the 2014 aggression, a conflict www.fragoutmag.com