Frag Out! Magazine
Issue link: https://fragout.uberflip.com/i/1528235
to those introduced in Crimea, hold regional referendums, and call on Russia for help in "protecting the local population" under the cover of the Ukrainian president residing in Russia, who could legitimize any Kremlin-prepared document for these regions with his signature. This, in simple terms, was the Russian plan for destabilizing Ukraine, and it probably did not initially anticipate the use of Russian armed forces in these regions. In fact, it later became clear that the Russian army at that time was not ready for a full- scale invasion of Ukraine. Initially, traditional tools of Russian hybrid warfare were used to destabilize Ukraine. The aforementioned pro-Russian organizations and even early-stage armed activities were financed by private individuals, mostly by various Russian oligarchs closely tied to and dependent on the Kremlin but formally independent from Russian authorities. The Russian regime could always claim it had nothing to do with these actions and that they were private initiatives beyond its control. Thus, pro-Russian movements in the east and south of Ukraine were mobilized in the spring of 2014. The remnants of the old oligarchic elites in these regions tried to use these movements to protect their financial interests in their struggle with the new authorities in Kyiv. These elites no longer had the strength to suppress pro-Russian organizations in their regions as they had before, and in the new situation, they simply tried to do nothing, attempting to negotiate with both Kyiv and the Kremlin in a way that would allow them to retain their wealth, regardless of who won the conflict. A good example of this approach could have been seen in the stance of Rinat Akhmetov, who, as we know, had several meetings with unknown Russian decision- makers during that period and adopted a neutral position in the conflict. Akhmetov remains a key player in Ukraine's economy today, and in the end, he was forced to choose Ukraine's side in the conflict. However, in 2014, he played a waiting game, seeking to preserve his industry in Donbas, even under Russian occupation. His factories, mines, and even supermarkets and cinemas continued to operate in Russian-controlled Donetsk for several years, even during the active phase of the war in Donbas. What was happening in the capital of Donbas in the spring of 2014? It began with mass pro-Russian public demonstrations, which at the early stage were supported by regional authorities. They used their influence to bring workers from local industrial plants and students from local universities to the rallies. Pro-Russian organizations, like the Donetsk Republic, still small at that time, were supported by "activists" from Russia. At this stage, the local authorities still believed they could control and use these demonstrations and public speeches. However, the situation quickly spiraled out of control. At one rally, where a variety of often conflicting slogans were being shouted, representatives of an aggressive minority, led by Donetsk Republic leader Pavel Gubarev, took over the stage, and after a brief speech, the enthusiastic crowd "elected" Gubarev as the "people's governor" of Donbas, clearly following the earlier coup scenario in Sevastopol. The local authorities responded by mobilizing their own "activist" units, known as "people's militia," which were intended to support law enforcement and prevent protesters from taking over public administration buildings. One of the leaders of these groups, which in practice consisted mostly of local thugs controlled by the Donetsk mafia or retired police officers, was the future leader of the Donetsk People's Republic, Zakharchenko. At that time, these "militia" units clashed in the streets with groups loyal to Gubarev, who in turn announced the formation of the "Donbas People's Militia." The paradox of the situation was that both groups were using pro-Russian slogans, but one sought to quickly implement the Crimean scenario, while the other tried to protect the interests of the old regional oligarchic elites, who still operated within the Ukrainian state. Eventually, Gubarev issued an ultimatum to the local council, demanding that they recognize his authority and declare ANALISYS