Frag Out! Magazine
Issue link: https://fragout.uberflip.com/i/1173894
killed by 8 or 9 Indians with knives – even if he shot accurately six times, the re- maining opponents would manage to deal their blows. Nowadays, the successful solution to a threat from air does not involve mass production of cheap low- range anti-aircraft guns (since they can be neutralized by flying over them beyond their range) but rather targeting devices that allow accurate bombarding. One may then notice the factors that would shape the image of an eventual, future conflict in Europe. It is impossible to establish the cause of such a war, the area of conflict, or the local conflict that would lead to the use of military power. It is possible, however, to indicate areas of the highest risk. WAR IN THE BALTIC REGION The said political factors connected with ambitions of Russia to restore its greatness through recovery of its pow- er from the times of the Soviet Union (when, to quote the classic phrase, "the world would tremble with terror at the sound of our rockets") make it easier to indicate the most probable and, at the same time, the most problematic area in which Russia would confront western NATO states. The said area is the Baltic region. From a political point of view, it is unusually complex; it includes countries that belong to the EU and NATO (Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia), countries that are members of the EU but do not belong to NATO, i.e. Sweden and Finland. Russia, apart from its general territory, has also control over the Kaliningrad Oblast that is surrounded by NATO member states. Finally, there are directly adjoining Be- larus and more NATO members, that is Denmark, Germany, Norway, all coun- tries that may have an important role in the events within that area. The potential purpose of Russian activ- ities is, among others, restoration (or protection) of own area of influence. Upon the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Kaliningrad Oblast was separated from Russia. What is more, Russia lost a significant part of its Baltic coastline and its western area of influence changed. Recovery of that area, which means tak- ing over Baltic countries, would be the potentially probable purpose of the con- ventional war. Such operations would have a broader goal. Taking over of NATO states would be detrimental to the reliability and in- tegrity of the pact. Automatically, Russia would get political advantage as a strong side that is capable of acting against the will of others – a similar purpose was in- volved in the case of involvement in Syria. NATO that would allow an attack on one or more member states left without sup- port or even taken over by the aggressor would quickly become unreliable and that would probably mean the end of the pact in the form we all know. From the military point of view, the cam- paign in Baltic countries seems easy. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are small countries, without mountains or water obstacles. Their armed forces are small. Despite purchases of military vehicles in www.fragoutmag.com