Frag Out! Magazine
Issue link: https://fragout.uberflip.com/i/1365706
in the game. It may turn out that conflict could be caused by a need to suppress the internal tensions through consolidation of the social awareness around the authorities scoring a win externally, with that win also creating a short-term, yet tangible benefit. Wars like that did happen in the past. This has been the objective adopted by the generals who initiated the Falklands war. The internal cause could also be associated with Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Finally, the Tet offensive during the Vietnam War was also caused by internal, political factors. These factors mean that any conventional conflict in Europe preceded by a longer phase in which conditions would be created for it to break out (with circumstances being formed even for a few years), with hybrid activities below threshold of war, is a probable scenario - with that scenario having a potential to lead towards another war on our planet. In a perfect world, tensions growing period would also involve a gradual boost of readiness among the armed forces, mobilization of resources, transfer of military units, and several other undertakings aimed at demonstrating the readiness to defend oneself. In the real world t h o u g h , political steps with consequences of this scale take time - and it is more time than the spectators may perceive, especially when hybrid warfare and information warfare could interfere with the decision-making processes, hence a necessity to make last-minute calls. Forces available in peacetime, or elements that could be easily mobilized, act as the first line of defense then. In the case of Europe, the first responders would primarily include the armed forces of the countries in the conflict region that could be the first object of aggression. The potential mentioned here varies quantitatively, and qualitatively, but also - logistically. For instance, Estonia has two infantry brigades at its disposal - during peacetime, they act as training elements. During wartime Estonia, taking the potential reserves into account, could deploy two regular motorized brigades, with a single IFV battalion (CV9035), and once the procurement was finalized - with a self-propelled artillery squadron. Adding the potential offered by the voluntary homeland defense forces, one could say that the Estonian military has an infantry division at its disposal during wartime, primarily light infantry, with air defense assets limited to VSHORAD weapons (AAA/SAM - ZU-23-2 cannons/Mistral missiles), without main battle tanks and utilizing basic Javelin ATGMs, along with 18 Spike ATGM launchers procured 2 years ago. Similarly, other Baltic states are modernizing their armed forces by procuring fighting vehicles, artillery, anti-tank, and anti-aircraft assets. Lithuania for instance has procured the Boxer IFVs fitted with ATGM www.fragoutmag.com