Frag Out! Magazine
Issue link: https://fragout.uberflip.com/i/1488818
conscripts, volunteers, paramilitary units, and civil defense elements). Comparing the resources available in those countries to Poland, it is evident that even though the Polish heavy assets are more numerous, with more self-propelled artillery pieces at hand, the air forces are comparable, not to mention the naval power. That potential translates into the major capability to inflict serious losses upon the adversary, in the event of a hypothetical war against Russia. Both Sweden, and Finland, could very much do that. The Finnish and Swedish NATO membership would not entail a necessity for other members to provide them with the required defense capabilities - these states already have them available at hand. The allied support could turn out to be helpful in the event of potential Russian aggression, as it would be stopped more effectively, and with fewer losses. Support in the LRAD domain may also turn out to be especially valuable. The same applies to large surface combatants, and air assets, attack helicopters included. Nonetheless, most of the fighting effort would still be handled by the locals. Unfortunately, this is a double-edged sword. The new allies will have a limited capacity to support the older members, with the main assets taking on the form of air, and, partially, naval power. This does not mean that other components would remain meaningless. One should, however, take the quantitative potential, and specific capabilities into account. The Armed Forces alone, units and elements, and equipment are just a small part of the big picture here. Above all, Swedish and Finnish NATO membership means that the Baltic Sea basin area would be subjected to a NATO closure - no longer EU members, that were not NATO members, are present in the region, and that status created some uncertainty when it comes to possible response the states in the region could show, in the event of aggression. Northern Europe, from now on, would be divided between NATO members, and Russia. In the event of a crisis, it would be easy to use the Swedish, or Finnish airspaces. Intel- exchange and confidential information exchange would also be trouble-free. Finally, it is also expected that joint defense planning is implemented. It is not a surprise then, that even now before the actual accession happened, the Scandinavian-NATO cooperation is becoming intensified, which shows in joint exercises. Russia, meanwhile, has found itself in extremely challenging geopolitical circumstances. A few years ago exercises would happen, with allied support being rendered by the deployment of the Polish Naval Missile Unit to Estonia (with the missiles limiting the freedom of movement for the Russian fleet), now, with the Bay of Finland being closed activities as such would be far more effective, with land, naval, and air assets working in the South (Estonia), North (Finland), and West (Baltic Sea plus Sweden). The ability for the air assets to work in the Swedish airspace, the possibility available to naval assets to enter the territorial waters of Sweden, or the deployment of anti-ship missiles to Gotland translate into a situation in which the Russian warships that would deploy before the conflict would be sent to the very same place, where the Moskva cruiser resides. Hypothetically, in the event of a Russian invasion of Baltic states, there is enough operational depth available to conduct a defensive operation and help the Baltic Sea republics. Taking into account the current state of the Russian military, if a war in this area breaks out now, or in a few years, we would be witnessing a spectacular victory on the part of NATO. One should still be aware of the fact that regardless of the results of the war in Ukraine, Russia may still be involved in further acts of aggression. It would be naive to think that decisions would be made by people unable to draw any conclusions from past experience. However, the fact that Sweden and Finland join NATO, and the alliance's defense planning scheme means that any reaction the West may engage in, when responding to aggressive steps taken by Russia, would be facilitated, and easier to launch. www.fragoutmag.com