Frag Out! Magazine
Issue link: https://fragout.uberflip.com/i/1308154
Should the attempts to stop those programs be unsuccessful when alternative measures are used (diplomacy, sanctions, covert intelligence operations - all of these means have been used so far), it should be assumed that the nuclear/ missile program-related facilities need to be eradicated to eliminate the technological facilities and the costly research and manufacturing infrastructure that would be difficult to restore, as well as the human resources that would be difficult to replace. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 28 facilities as such have been identified in Iran. The aforesaid group includes five main nuclear facilities, including ones located in Arak, Fordow, Natanz, Parchin, and Isfahan, 15 research and manufacturing facilities tied to the missile program, and 8 bases where the ballistic missiles could be potentially stationed. One shall also take into account the fact that, if Iran ends up developing nuclear weapons, then the ballistic missiles would be designed in a way providing those missiles with a maximum level of survivability and ability to strike. It is justified then to assume that the launchers would be mobile and scattered and even camouflaged within the Iranian territory, at least during the periods of heightened tensions. The least that Iran may do is place the missiles in underground silos. Some of the Iranian nuclear facilities are established in underground locations already - and this could make it challenging to destroy them with an airstrike. A comprehensive analysis of a task as such requires a study of the Iranian military potential in general. Quantitatively, it is quite impressive. Iran's defense expenditure is as high as 4% of GDP. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (with its own Navy, Air Force, and Special Operations component) along with the military units subordinated to the government altogether are formed by 600,000 soldiers (500,000 soldiers serve in the land component). Furthermore, one needs to include the annual reserves, as conscription is still in force in Iran. Potentially, the so-called Basij Militia that is lightly armed and controlled by the Revolutionary Guards Corps could be put into use. The actual combat potential and quantitative shape of that branch are difficult to assess - officially, 600,000 members could be involved in the combat activities. The number of troops is not enough, however, in the contemporary setting, to assess the actual potential that the armed forces have. The military uses a mix of main battle tanks, aircraft, helicopters, artillery assets, missiles, and other armaments of different origins. Some of those assets come from the western sources and procurements made in the times of Shah (prior www.fragoutmag.com