Frag Out! Magazine
Issue link: https://fragout.uberflip.com/i/1446249
Large, manned aircraft or helicopters may also be used to conduct an airstrike. In a scenario as such, a procured, bor- rowed, or self-made, or even kidnapped aircraft is used to carry out a strike, or even a suicide strike. Some events as such did happen in the past. 9/11 is the obvious example here - but other suicide or homicide acts with a similar methodol- ogy employed took place as well. Back in 1994, a mentally unstable man crashed a Cessna 150 on the lawn in front of the White House. In 2010, a lone perpetrator used Piper Dakota to hit an office build- ing that was used by the US Tax Admin- istration. No events as such happened in Poland. However, there were some cases of serious breaches of flight regu- lations - committed by persons who had no credentials or flying an unregistered aircraft. Usually, this came to light only during the air crash investigation - no perpetrator here had hostile intentions of any kind. It is, however, plausible, that a person willing to conduct an attack would acquire an aircraft, helicopter, or an autogyro - using it as a weapon. How- ever, the probability of such an act is low. It is more probable that other perpetra- tors would get involved here, especially when we are discussing hybrid threats. In scenarios as such, a foreign state may covertly use its assets to inflict a rele- vant effect. An airstrike against critical infrastruc- ture may be conducted with the use of tools far more dangerous than small, commercial UAVs. The use of such assets would be coordinated, and other means would also get involved here. It is quite simple to define the potential scenarios as such in Poland. In an event of an international crisis, with height- ened tensions and mutual muscle-flexing, sanctions, or other actions, the critical infrastructure may become a target. Targets as such include the LNG termi- nal in Świnoujście, fuel storage facilities, power stations, or important transport hubs. Even if the attack does not result in destruction, critical damage may be inflicted, rendering the use of the given facility unusable, at least for the time required to assess the effects of the attack, and make sure that opera- tion may be restored. The political, economic, and social cost of disabling a powerplant, or suspend- ing the LNG supplies, may be dire. One successful attack may be easily used as the core of a propaganda operation that would entail a risk of further at- tacks. Threatening the public by painting a vision of lack of fuel or electricity may have far outreaching ramifications - from mass, panic buyout of fuel and essential goods, to a mass movement to another region, or even abroad. The necessity to contain the internal crises would also mean that the state may not be able to act effectively in the international arena. This may mean, for instance, that Poland may implement concessions, complying with Russian pressure. The means used for an attack may in- clude, in particular, loitering munitions (rotary- or fixed-wing UAVs designed for precise, suicide strikes). Considering the resources that a state may use to pre- pare such activities, it is possible to con- ceal the components of such UAVs on the ANALYSIS