Frag Out! Magazine
Issue link: https://fragout.uberflip.com/i/1308154
undertaking. The war has not broken out after all, and it is not probable that it would become reality in the nearest future. Nonetheless, it is an interesting starting point for an analysis of the particular scenario of a modern conventional conflict, specifically embedded within a tangible scenario. Furthermore, the case is peculiar also because the legendary F-14 Tomcat could participate in the fight - without the US Navy markings though. Analyzing the potential conflict one needs to take several factors into the account: First - the geographical factor and its impact on the situation in which the states concerned find themselves. However, one should not consider the geographical factor as a fundamental one. It is a common view in Poland. Not only is geopolitics a discipline that concerns the geography's impact on the actions that states take, but it also scrutinizes the impact that actions taken by the states have on geography. This sounds like a paradox. However, the hypothetical conflict that we are going to discuss in the present article provides us with some interesting examples. From the point of view of geography alone (physical and political), Iran is a country located in the Persian and Oman Gulf area. It has a coast that is 1,770 km long there. It also borders the Caspian Sea, with a long land border (5,894 km) and large land territory (out of the 1,648 sq. km, the land takes up 1,531 sq. km). Iran is a highland, mountainous state, with an average height above the sea level of 1,305 m. The climate is defined as tropical, subtropical, continental, with scarce precipitation. The country's river network is weakly developed, lakes are also rare. Forests make up just 7% of its territory. From the military point of view: what the data say? Not much, to be frank. One could say that the small quantity of rivers means that there is no need to cross them. The point is that conclusion as such automatically leads us to a scenario of a conventional, land invasion. However, one fact related to Iran's geography is a fundamental one, for further analysis. Paradoxically, that fact does not refer to the land per se. Iran is located in the Persian Gulf area and it yields control over the Hormuz Strait - it is the sole connection between the Gulf and the Indian Ocean. This is a strategic chokepoint, due to the significant role it plays for sea traffic, especially concerning oil transport. At the same time, one should remember that this sea route has gained significance since crude oil has become an important asset for the global economy. The oil boom began in the mid-20th Century for the Middle East. Crude oil may become less relevant over the upcoming 50 years. And this could happen due to the lower demand and depletion of the deposits. For those reasons, it is risky to create analyses or forecasts based on unchanging factors, such as geography. 200, 300, or 400 www.fragoutmag.com