Frag Out! Magazine
Issue link: https://fragout.uberflip.com/i/1493095
consequently lead to losses and deaths. The above means that some preliminary conclusions may be drawn, regarding the transformation of the Polish Armed Forces. Above all, Russia will still be a threat in the foreseeable future. And that threat would become more significant, as Moscow replenishes its assets stockpile, and transforms its defense industry, and the economy in general. One cannot resign from modernizing and perfecting the Armed Forces. Even though we are now in a situation in which rapid, significant defense procurement is not frowned upon, we do not know the exact consequences of the current events. The unstoppable growth of energy prices, inflation, and the social repercussions those may generate would mean that pressure may emerge, sooner or later, to implement cuts in the defense expenditure, at least to a limited extent. Furthermore, it needs to be noted that NATO would be a much stronger alliance during the upcoming decade, certainly stronger than in the years preceding 2022. Not only would this be the case because Finland and Sweden decided to join, but also because the member states decided to accelerate the procurement of military equipment, to recover, or reinforce their capabilities to engage in conventional warfare. Russia, meanwhile, will make attempts aimed at weakening the alliance, however, at least in Northern, or Central Europe the effectiveness of such actions would be limited. One should remember that after the Russian war crimes are exposed, the societies of nations close to Russia would be eager to accept increased military spending for years to come. It became crystal clear that the money translates into keeping the soldiers and equipment ready to protect the societies of Poland, Sweden, Finland, or Lithuania from repeating the Bucha massacre scenario. Russia may engage in one of the three, plausible scenarios. One of them involves hybrid warfare aimed at the destabilization of societies and power structures and the weakening of alliance cohesion. These actions are a relevant threat. It is plausible that Russia may undertake them at a larger, broader scale, especially during the upcoming years, treating those actions as a substitute for a conventional armed conflict, and, later on, as a way to create circumstances favorable for using conventional forces - once the Russian military regains its former strength. Secondly, it is possible that a limited use of force may happen, with air and missile strikes demonstrating the intent and ability to attack the Polish territory. One also cannot rule out a full-scale war - with aggression directed against Poland, and other NATO member states. Two important ramifications for Warsaw emerge here. First, it is not probable that Poland would be left alone, should a war with Russia break out - Warsaw may count on the Americans, the Brits, or the Scandinavian NATO member states. Secondly, the concepts developed years ago, assuming that the Vistula river would be the designated line of defense, are far from being acceptable. Allowing the potential adversary to capture the territory exposes the population to potential war crimes. At the same time, one cannot create an impenetrable stronghold, defending just the border. One should come to terms with the fact that war would be ugly, close to the borders. Other areas may also be threatened by ANALYSIS